The U.S. government could risk defaulting on its $36.6 trillion debt as early as mid-July if Congress fails to raise the borrowing limit, according to a new projection from the Bipartisan Policy Center. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is expected to release its own estimate of the critical “X-date”—the point when the Treasury can no longer meet all obligations—later this week.
Congress has repeatedly delayed debt ceiling negotiations until the last minute, unsettling financial markets and prompting credit rating downgrades in the past. The standoffs persist despite the fact that congressional spending and tax policies directly contribute to rising national debt.
“Lawmakers cannot afford to delay action on the debt limit,” said Shai Akabas of the Bipartisan Policy Center. “Addressing it well ahead of the X-date should be a top priority.”
A 2023 debt ceiling crisis brought the U.S. dangerously close to default, damaging its credit rating. This year, additional factors—including slower economic growth and new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump—could further complicate fiscal negotiations.
The exact default deadline remains uncertain, hinging on variables like April tax receipts and federal spending. A prolonged standoff could trigger market instability, as the U.S. has never before defaulted on its debt.
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