Republican Randy Fine has narrowly won a Florida special congressional election, retaining a GOP stronghold but seeing Donald Trump’s 30-point 2024 margin slashed to just 14% in a race that exposed Republican vulnerabilities ahead of next year’s midterms.
The state senator defeated Democratic challenger Josh Weil, a pro Gaza public school teacher who outraised Fine 12-to-1, amassing $12 million in a district once considered safely red. The unexpectedly tight race forced last minute interventions from Trump and national Republicans, who mobilized to shore up conservative turnout.
While Republicans avoided an embarrassing upset in the seat formerly held by National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, the diminished victory margin has sparked concerns about 2025’s congressional battles. Democrats hailed Weil’s performance as proof their messaging on protecting Social Security and Medicare is resonating in retiree-heavy districts.
The result leaves House Republicans with a still-workable majority but underscores the challenge of defending swing seats next year. A second Florida special election for Matt Gaetz’s former seat was easily won by the GOP without similar drama.
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