President Putin appears to be in a strong position as US-Russia talks regarding the Ukraine war begin in Saudi Arabia. The Trump administration’s actions have inadvertently benefited Putin by lessening his international isolation, fracturing Western unity on the conflict, and raising doubts about US commitment to European defense. Trump’s willingness to strike a deal with Putin, regardless of its impact on Ukraine and European security, is a major concern.
The exclusion of European allies from initial peace talks, despite their crucial role in providing security guarantees and troops, has caused alarm, prompting an emergency meeting in Paris. Similarly, Ukraine’s potential exclusion from discussions about its own future survival after the Russian invasion is deeply troubling. Trump has indicated a desire for a meeting with Putin soon, stating his administration is working towards peace between Russia and Ukraine. However, Zelensky has made it clear that Ukraine will not accept any US-Russia decisions made without its input, to which Trump has offered vague assurances of Ukrainian involvement.
The US delegation to the Saudi talks will be led by Rubio, Waltz, and Witkoff. Rubio characterized the meeting as a follow-up to Trump’s recent phone call with Putin, emphasizing the importance of the coming days in determining the seriousness of peace efforts. He also contradicted Kellogg’s earlier statement about excluding European nations from peace talks, asserting that both Ukraine and European countries must be involved.
While the evolving US position suggests caution against overreacting to initial rhetoric, Trump’s engagement with Putin offers a potential path to ending the war. However, this requires genuine involvement from Ukraine and European states. Despite this, some European leaders see Trump’s outreach to Putin as counterproductive, emboldening the Russian leader. They acknowledge that their involvement will be necessary when discussions turn to troop deployment.
Nevertheless, the administration’s mixed messages raise fears of a deal that legitimizes Russia’s invasion and is imposed on Ukraine. While some accept the reality of Russia retaining some seized territory, Trump’s approach has been criticized for weakening the US’s negotiating leverage. Furthermore, comments from administration officials about Ukraine’s potential NATO membership and the absence of US peacekeeping troops have added to the uncertainty.
Trump’s rapid efforts to normalize relations with Putin, including echoing Russian narratives about the invasion and advocating for Russia’s return to the G8, have heightened concerns. His apparent disregard for European coordination on Ukraine and the exclusion of Kyiv from the Saudi talks further weaken the Western position. European officials, more aligned with Ukraine’s perspective, could be sidelined, diminishing Zelensky’s influence.
Vance’s criticism of European democracy and meeting with a far-right German party, along with Hegseth’s comments about European security, signal a potential shift towards supporting populist movements in Europe and a distancing from NATO.
All of this benefits Putin, signaling the end of his international isolation and the potential for a favorable deal on Ukraine. The divisions within NATO created by Trump fulfill a key Russian foreign policy objective. Experts have characterized this confluence of events as a major win for Putin.
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