The Oil Price Outlook 2025 improved on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump extended the trade talks deadline with the European Union. This move eased fears of new U.S. tariffs on the EU, which could have hurt the global economy and crude oil demand. As a result, Brent crude futures rose 26 cents, reaching $65.04 per barrel early Monday. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 24 cents, hitting $61.77 per barrel. These developments have positively influenced the overall Oil Price Outlook 2025.
Market analysts welcomed the development. Tony Sycamore from IG Markets said the extension provided a “nice push higher in crude oil and U.S. equity futures.” Trump agreed to prolong the trade talks deadline until July 9 after Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, requested more time to finalize an agreement.
Trade tensions and tariff concerns remain significant factors affecting the oil market. Alongside fiscal issues, these elements continue to influence risk sentiment and crude oil prices. Brent and WTI had already extended gains after Friday’s 0.5% rise. The limited progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks helped ease worries about a surge in Iranian oil supplies. Additionally, U.S. buyers increased positions ahead of the Memorial Day weekend, supporting prices.
Data from Baker Hughes also influenced the oil price outlook. U.S. firms reduced the number of active oil rigs by eight, bringing the total to 465 last week. This level marks the lowest since November 2021. Such reductions can signal tighter supply, potentially supporting prices in the future.
However, expectations that OPEC+ will boost output by an additional 411,000 barrels per day in July capped the gains. Energy analysts like Suvro Sarkar from DBS Bank warned that ongoing production increases might suppress price growth. He described the situation as a “mini oil price war” driven by OPEC+’s aggressive output strategy.
Reuters reported that OPEC+ plans to unwind the remainder of its 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut by October. The group has already raised output targets by about 1 million barrels daily from April through June.
ING’s commodities strategist Warren Patterson added that OPEC+’s decision to increase production will likely keep supply well above demand in the second half of 2025. This dynamic may limit any sustained price rallies despite the recent positive momentum.
In conclusion, the Oil Price Outlook 2025 remains cautiously optimistic. President Trump’s extension of the EU trade talks deadline has given the market a temporary boost. However, OPEC+ production decisions will continue to shape oil prices moving forward. Investors should watch these developments closely.
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