Europe is facing a new reality in its defense strategy as doubts grow over the United States’ unwavering commitment to NATO under the Trump administration. With Washington adopting a more transactional approach to its alliances, European leaders are now exploring bold measures to ensure their security, including the possibility of establishing a European “nuclear umbrella.”
The shift comes as US Vice President JD Vance urged European nations to take greater responsibility for their own defense during a speech in Munich in February. While Europe has pledged to increase defense spending and support for Ukraine, the idea of relying on France and the United Kingdom—both nuclear powers—for deterrence against Russia has gained traction.
France, with approximately 290 nuclear warheads, and the UK, equipped with 225 US-designed Trident missiles, are at the center of this discussion. French President Emmanuel Macron recently called for a “strategic debate” on extending France’s nuclear deterrence to protect European allies. This proposal has been met with interest from leaders across the continent, including Germany’s presumed next Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who expressed support for the idea.
Even nations historically opposed to nuclear weapons, such as Sweden and Denmark, have welcomed France’s overtures. The UK, while not publicly offering to share its nuclear capabilities, already provides strategic protection to European allies through its commitment to NATO.
The concept of a European nuclear umbrella is not entirely new. During the Cold War, France sought to extend its nuclear protection to its allies, a move rooted in its desire to maintain global influence. However, the current geopolitical climate, marked by uncertainty over US reliability, has reignited the debate.
Meanwhile, some European leaders are still hoping for stronger US support. Polish President Andrzej Duda recently called on former President Donald Trump to deploy US nuclear weapons in Poland, citing Russia’s decision to station nuclear missiles in Belarus as a precedent. “I think it’s not only that the time has come, but that it would be safer if those weapons were already here,” Duda told the Financial Times.
As Europe grapples with these complex defense challenges, the question of how to ensure its security in a rapidly changing world remains unanswered. For now, the idea of a European nuclear umbrella represents both a pragmatic solution and a stark reminder of the shifting dynamics within the transatlantic alliance.
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