The U.S. obesity pill race is heating up as Eli Lilly pushes its experimental drug against Novo Nordisk’s oral version of Wegovy. Recent trial results showed Eli Lilly’s pill, orforglipron, delivered less weight loss than analysts expected and triggered more side effects. Still, experts argue it remains a strong competitor in the fast-growing market.
Eli Lilly’s late-stage trial followed 3,000 patients and produced average weight loss of 12.4 percent at the highest dose. That figure was slightly below Novo’s oral semaglutide, which showed stronger weight loss results in a smaller trial group. Investors initially reacted negatively, with Eli Lilly’s stock falling sharply. However, shares have since regained ground as analysts highlighted the pill’s broader potential.
One key advantage lies in how the drug works. Orforglipron is a small-molecule pill, absorbed more easily by the body. Unlike Novo’s peptide-based semaglutide, it requires no dietary restrictions. Manufacturing orforglipron at scale should also be easier, which matters as demand for obesity drugs continues to outpace supply. Therefore, the U.S. obesity pill race may hinge less on trial percentages and more on production capacity.
Price also remains a crucial factor. Analysts believe Eli Lilly’s pill could launch at a lower price than Novo’s version. That would make it more attractive to patients, especially since many U.S. health plans do not cover obesity treatments. Novo’s semaglutide must be taken under strict conditions, such as an empty stomach and limited water intake, which could deter users. Eli Lilly’s pill, by contrast, offers greater convenience.
Despite lower efficacy, experts say a 12 percent weight reduction still represents meaningful results for patients. Some doctors argue that most patients will value accessibility, cost, and ease of use over small differences in percentages. This view strengthens the case that Eli Lilly can capture significant market share.
Analyst forecasts reflect optimism. Goldman Sachs estimates the global obesity drug market could reach $95 billion by 2030. Of that, daily oral pills could represent 24 percent, or about $22 billion. Eli Lilly’s pill could capture as much as 60 percent of this segment, while Novo Nordisk may hold 21 percent. The remainder would go to other emerging players. This projection underscores the high stakes of the U.S. obesity pill race.
Other companies, including Pfizer, Viking Therapeutics, AstraZeneca, and Roche, are also developing their own oral treatments. However, many candidates have struggled to meet expectations or showed weaker results compared to Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Investors remain cautious, but most agree the rivalry between these two giants will define the next stage of obesity treatments.
Ultimately, the U.S. obesity pill race highlights the shifting landscape of weight loss medicine. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk stand at the center, with their competition set to reshape patient access, global healthcare costs, and pharmaceutical revenues for years ahead.
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