Gold prices could fall below $3,000 per ounce by late 2025, according to a new report from Citi. The U.S. bank revised its short- and long-term gold price forecasts, citing weak investment demand and a brighter global growth outlook. In a market note released Monday, Citi projected lower prices in both the base and bearish scenarios.
In the near term, Citi cut its 0–3 month price target to $3,300 per ounce, down from $3,500. For the 6–12 month outlook, the bank lowered its target from $3,000 to $2,800 per ounce. The base case suggests prices will fluctuate between $3,100 and $3,500 in the third quarter of 2025. This range reflects support from ongoing geopolitical risks, possible tariff shifts, and U.S. budget challenges.
Despite the current strength, Citi expects gold prices to decline as conditions change. According to the bank, gold prices could fall once investor demand fades in late 2025 and early 2026. The note highlighted rising optimism about U.S. economic growth and the influence of political factors like midterm elections. Citi also pointed to growing support for former President Trump as a factor that could boost market confidence.
Looking ahead, Citi sees gold returning to $2,500–$2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026. In its bullish scenario, prices could rise above $3,500 if economic tensions escalate. On the other hand, prices might drop below $3,000 if geopolitical risks ease and tariff issues get resolved. Even so, emerging market central banks could continue buying gold, which might limit the decline.
Interestingly, Citi only gave a 20% chance to either extreme scenario. While gold prices could fall in the coming quarters, silver is expected to perform better. Citi forecasts silver to reach $40 per ounce within 6–12 months. In a bullish case, silver could climb to $46 by the third quarter of 2025. This would follow a faster resolution to the U.S.–China trade war and continued strong demand.
In conclusion, gold prices could fall as global investors shift focus from safety to growth. Citi’s latest outlook reflects a changing market environment driven by economic confidence and policy shifts in the United States.
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